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"Differences are growing within the Biden Administration over what kind of victory for Ukraine the United States should support. On the outcome of these discussions could depend not only the outcome of the war in Ukraine, but even conceivably the future of humanity."   Article at Quincy Institute

While the media keep touting the prospects for a recession, it is difficult to see why there would be one in the immediate future. To start with the basic picture, growth in the fourth quarter was a very solid 2.9 percent, following a slightly stronger 3.1 percent in the third quarter. This is very far from the negative growth we see in a recession. When we look at the individual components, the picture is somewhat mixed. Inventory accumulation accounted for half the growth, adding 1.46 percentage points to growth in the quarter. This obviously will not be sustained, and after the rapid growth in the fourth quarter, we are likely to see inventories as a drag on growth in future quarters. However, the flip side is that some of the items dragging growth down in the fourth quarter will have less of a negative impact in future quarters. Housing stands out here, and the drop in residential investment knocked 1.29 percentage points off the quarter’s growth, after lowering third-quarter growt...

"The bloodletting in Ukraine continues with no end in sight.  The risks of continued casualties, now numbering likely well over half a million, along with the attendant escalation spiral, must be firmly rejected by responsible leaders."  *** "Would the leaders of Russia and Ukraine come to the table for such a Korean-style armistice? Putin, as the leader bearing the greatest responsibility for this tragedy, surely realizes that his whole legacy is in grave jeopardy, so that he must end the unpopular war as soon as possible.  Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who was elected originally to seek peace with Russia, knows that his country has been bled white in this struggle and it is well past time to turn to the arduous task of rebuilding. As there has been most likely well over half a million casualties in the present conflict, humanitarians across the whole world must hope courageous leaders will step forward to mediate and encourage Putin and Zelensky...